FX Daily analysis
Dollar index slips as Aussie jumps and won falls hard against it
The dollar index gave back 0.16% as the session's real action sat in the crosses, not the greenback itself. AUD/USD rose 0.50% on a 0.89 z-score while USD/KRW jumped 1.32% on a 2.03 z-score, the two outliers that defined the day.
Takeaways
- USD/KRW moved 2.03 standard deviations against its own volatility, the largest dislocation in the pack today.
- AUD/USD sits at its one-month high after a 0.50% gain, extending a five-day advance of 0.69%.
- The dollar index fell 0.16% on the day but remains up 0.37% on the week and 0.77% on the month.
- The US 2-year yield rose 2bp on the day but is down 9bp on the week, and most pairs did not track it closely.
The dollar
The dollar index closed at 102.16, down 0.16% on the day, though it is still higher by 0.37% over the week and 0.77% over the month. The index sits 0.42% below its one-month high of 102.58 and 0.53% above the one-month low of 101.61, both of which double as 52-week extremes. The daily move was a modest -0.54z, nothing stretched.
The US 2-year yield ticked up 2bp to 4.70% on the day but has fallen 9bp over the week and 11bp over the month. The 10-year fell 1bp to 4.99%, down 13bp on the week. The index's 60-day correlation to the 2-year is 0.37, a loose but positive relationship, and today's small dollar pullback against a small 2-year rise did not fit that pattern cleanly.
G10 majors
USD/KRW led the majors and the whole pack today, up 1.32% to 1342.21, a 2.03 standard deviation move. That puts it just below its one-month high of 1342.99 and 1.52% above its 52-week low. The pair is also up 1.38% on the week but still down 1.28% on the month, so the one-day jump has not undone the broader drift lower in dollar terms.
AUD/USD was the other standout, rising 0.50% to 0.7055, a 0.89z session that put the pair at its own one-month high. It is up 0.69% over five sessions and 0.55% over the month. NZD/USD moved the opposite way and harder: down 1.01% on the day, a 1.85z move, the sharpest percentage drop of any pair in the pack. It is now 0.78% above its 52-week low of 0.5587, having also given back 0.83% over the week.
Elsewhere the moves were smaller. EUR/USD fell 0.12% to 1.1161, sitting right at its 52-week low of 1.11602, down 0.59% on the week and 1.86% on the month. GBP/USD fell 0.14% to 1.3326, close to its 50-day average of 1.3324. USD/CAD fell 0.17% to 1.3989, sitting exactly at its one-month low, with CAD up 0.55% on the week and 1.35% on the month against the dollar. USD/CHF rose 0.03% to 0.8278, a quiet session against a 0.47% monthly CHF gain.
Emerging markets
In Asia, USD/CNY fell 0.23% to 6.6549, sitting at both its one-month and 52-week low, with CNY up 0.35% on the week and 0.83% on the month against the dollar. USD/INR was flat, up just 0.02% to 95.21, though INR has lost 0.52% on the week and gained 0.81% on the month. USD/KRW's 1.32% jump stands apart from the rest of the region, a single-session move larger than its full monthly change of -1.28%.
In Latin America and EMEA, USD/MXN rose 0.46% to 18.6357, a 0.83z move that puts it right at its one-month high, with MXN down 1.13% on the week and 3.56% on the month, the worst monthly performance against the dollar in the pack. USD/BRL fell 0.44% on the day to 5.3492 but is up 6.50% on the week, the largest five-day move in either direction across the sheet. USD/ZAR fell 0.15% to 16.6073 despite ZAR losing 1.30% on the week. USD/TRY rose 0.10% to 49.8321, a fresh one-month and 52-week high, consistent with TRY's steady monthly slide of 1.68%.
Rate differentials and central banks
The rate differential backdrop did not point in one direction today. Australia's cash rate stands at 4.60% as of October 15, last moved up 25bp on September 30, putting AUD 60bp above the top of the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00% range. AUD/USD's 60-day correlation to the US 2-year is a weak 0.07, so today's rise came with the 2-year up 2bp, a combination the correlation history does not explain well.
Korea's policy rate is 3.00% as of October 8, last changed on August 27, a gap of -100bp to the Fed. USD/KRW's correlation to the 2-year is -0.17, weakly negative, so the pair's 1.32% jump came against a 2-year yield that rose only 2bp on the day and fell over the week. The move does not track the recent rate relationship. New Zealand's rate is 2.75% as of October 16, last raised 25bp on September 3, a -125bp gap to the Fed; NZD/USD's correlation to the 2-year is essentially flat at -0.02, and its 1.01% drop also sits outside that pattern.
Among the others, the ECB's deposit rate is 2.50% as of today, last raised 25bp on September 16, a -150bp gap to the Fed, and EUR/USD's correlation to the 2-year is a thin 0.10. The BoE rate is 3.75% as of October 19, last cut 25bp on December 18, 2025, a -25bp gap, with GBP/USD correlation to the 2-year near zero at 0.01. The BoC rate is 2.25% as of October 19, last cut 25bp on October 30, 2025, a -175bp gap; USD/CAD's correlation to the 2-year is -0.09. None of the G10 pairs showed a tight relationship to the front end today, consistent with a session where the 2-year's own move was small.
Levels that matter
- USD/KRW: closed 1342.21, close to the one-month high of 1342.99, with the 52-week low at 1321.76 further below.
- NZD/USD: closed 0.5631, between the 50-day average at 0.5678 above and the 52-week low at 0.5587 below.
- USD/CNY: closed 6.6549, at both its one-month and 52-week low, with the 50-day average at 6.6983 above.
- AUD/USD: closed 0.7055, at its one-month high, with the 200-day average at 0.7070 above and the 50-day average at 0.7029 below.
- EUR/USD: closed 1.1161, at its 52-week low, with the one-month high at 1.1235 above.
- USD/CAD: closed 1.3989, at its one-month low, with the 200-day average at 1.3953 below and the 50-day average at 1.4087 above.
- USD/TRY: closed 49.8321, at both its one-month and 52-week high, with the one-month low at 49.2121 below.
- USD/MXN: closed 18.6357, close to its one-month high of 18.7208, with the one-month low at 17.9747 well below.
Every pair
| Pair | Last | Day | Week | Month | Year to date | Policy rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The dollar | ||||||
| Dollar indexindex | 102.16 | −0.16% | +0.37% | +0.77% | +3.79% | n/a |
| G10 majors | ||||||
| EUR/USDUSD per EUR | 1.1161 | −0.12% | −0.59% | −1.86% | −5.02% | 2.50%ECB, −150bp vs Fed |
| USD/JPYJPY per USD | 157.78 | +0.16% | −0.31% | +0.27% | +0.67% | 1.25%BoJ, −275bp vs Fed |
| GBP/USDUSD per GBP | 1.3326 | −0.14% | −0.35% | +0.54% | −1.10% | 3.75%BoE, −25bp vs Fed |
| USD/CHFCHF per USD | 0.8278 | +0.03% | +0.26% | −0.47% | +4.52% | 0.00%SNB, −400bp vs Fed |
| USD/CADCAD per USD | 1.3989 | −0.17% | −0.55% | −1.33% | +1.99% | 2.25%BoC, −175bp vs Fed |
| AUD/USDUSD per AUD | 0.7055 | +0.50% | +0.69% | +0.55% | +5.64% | 4.60%RBA, +60bp vs Fed |
| NZD/USDUSD per NZD | 0.5631 | −1.01% | −0.83% | −0.58% | −2.21% | 2.75%RBNZ, −125bp vs Fed |
| Emerging markets | ||||||
| USD/CNYCNY per USD | 6.6549 | −0.23% | −0.34% | −0.83% | −4.88% | 3.00%PBoC, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/MXNMXN per USD | 18.6357 | +0.46% | +1.15% | +3.69% | +3.62% | 6.50%Banxico, +250bp vs Fed |
| USD/BRLBRL per USD | 5.3492 | −0.44% | +6.50% | +2.42% | −3.04% | 13.75%BCB, +975bp vs Fed |
| USD/INRINR per USD | 95.210 | +0.02% | +0.52% | −0.80% | +5.83% | 5.50%RBI, +150bp vs Fed |
| USD/KRWKRW per USD | 1,342.21 | +1.32% | +1.38% | −1.28% | −7.03% | 3.00%BoK, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/ZARZAR per USD | 16.6073 | −0.15% | +1.32% | +1.23% | +0.34% | 7.25%SARB, +325bp vs Fed |
| USD/TRYTRY per USD | 49.8321 | +0.10% | +0.50% | +1.71% | +15.90% | 37.00%CBRT, +3,300bp vs Fed |
Moves as each pair is quoted: a rise in USD/JPY is a stronger dollar, a rise in EUR/USD a stronger euro. Policy rates as the analysis had them on file, against the top of the Fed's range.
Sources
Exchange rates and the dollar index at the session close from Yahoo Finance; the Fed and ECB rates and Treasury yields from FRED. Every figure in this analysis was checked against the session's verified fact pack. The text was drafted with a language model from that fact pack; the methodology explains how.
For information only. Not investment advice.