Daily close notes
Every US trading day, after the close. 44 notes. Weekly reviews and research are in the Research Library.
October 2026
- Rate cut fails to rally stocks as yields fall and vol spikes together
- Mega-cap tech sells off, small caps and value pick up the slack
- Stocks grind to records as vol collapses and credit quietly leaks
- Risk rallies behind chips and small caps while energy and the dollar diverge
- Stocks grind higher as vix falls, yields push toward 5.00 on 10-year
- Market close: quantitative read of the session
- Megacap tech sells off, bond yields rise, and staples catch the bid
- Risk appetite firms as vol drains out and equities grind to fresh highs
- Small caps and health care lead while rates back up and mega-cap tech lags
- Tech sells off, bonds rally, energy and staples absorb the rotation
- Small caps and bonds rally together while curve flattens and gold jumps
- Risk-off broadens as Nasdaq drops 2.02% and VIX jumps over 10%
- Treasuries rally and flatten while mega-cap tech sells off against them
- Stocks rise and yields fall together as curve bull-flattens, breadth confirms
- Energy and staples carry the tape while megacap tech absorbs the selling
- Stocks grind to a high while bonds sell off and nobody blinks
- Equities grind to highs as yields rise and rates vol jumps
- Stocks rally and bonds sell off together, and credit does not confirm either
- Stocks grind higher as credit and the dollar quietly diverge
September 2026
- Curve bear steepens as credit and breadth quietly deteriorate under a flat tape
- Curve flattens, credit slips, and gold sells off with breadth this weak
- Risk off across the board as growth stocks lead a broad decline
- Stocks grind higher into a bear steepener while yields hit fresh highs across the curve
- Rates sell off hard, credit follows, equities barely notice yet
- Risk-off day: credit, rates vol and small caps sell together as dollar bids
- Small caps lead, banks lag, and the S&P closes flat at a record
- Stocks rip to highs while yields climb and oil breaks lower
- Rates rally, credit doesn't follow, and breadth stays negative under a flat tape
- Stocks Rally Broadly While Front-End Yields Push to Fresh Highs
- Dollar and yields rise together as financials and energy lead a narrow selloff
- Oil Jumps Four Percent While Credit Slides to Session Lows
- Curve flattens, credit sets fresh lows, mega-cap tech splits in two
- Stocks, bonds and credit sell together as crude oil jumps sharply
- Oil spike and credit weakness drag risk into defensive territory
- Equities slip on narrow breadth while commodities rally and curve flattens
- S&P gains 1.06% on broad breadth while gold and yen also rally
- Oil jumps, curve steepens, but gold and credit sell off with equities
August 2026
- Bear flattener drags small caps and chipmakers as gold breaks lower
- Five stocks carry the S&P higher while breadth turns negative underneath
- Rates fall on real yields, dollar firms anyway, breadth stays negative
- Credit strength drives a constructive session as crude drops and vol drains out
- Market close: quantitative read of the session
- Equities broaden and volatility eases while gold prints a record high
- Market close: quantitative read of the session