Andra Markets

Research Library

Weekly market reviews and research from Andra Markets: longer than the daily note, written to be kept. Each report opens as its PDF.

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Research

Deeper work on a theme, an asset class or a company, published when it is ready.

  1. CommoditiesBig Oil’s Windfall Quarter: Exxon and Chevron at Record HighsExxon earned $15.4 billion and set $20 billion of 2027 buybacks; Chevron’s profit nearly tripled. Where the money came from, what they do with it and what it says about the oil market. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.5 MB
  2. MacroInflation Is Back: The Fed, the ECB and the BoJ at a CrossroadsUS PCE inflation at 3.6%, a split Fed, an ECB losing Lagarde early and a Bank of Japan at its 2% target. Where each central bank stands, what markets price and what to watch into December. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.5 MB
  3. EquitiesTech’s Worst Day Since June: Intel, Chips and the AI Payoff QuestionIntel fell 29% on a weak guide, the chip index lost 7.2% and the Nasdaq 2.9%. What moved, why it spread across the chain and what it says about where the AI cycle stands. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.5 MB
  4. MacroThe Truce That Isn’t on Paper: US-China After 10 NovemberThe US-China truce is extended in politics to 10 January, but its legal texts still expire on 9 and 10 November. What lapses, how tariffs and trade have shifted, and what is at stake for markets. · PDF · 8 pages · 0.6 MB
  5. EquitiesThe $730 Billion Question: Big Tech’s AI Capex and What It Means for InvestorsCloud growth accelerated at Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, yet the market sold two of them as capex outran cash flow. The results, the funding, the accounting and the scenarios for 2027. · PDF · 15 pages · 0.7 MB
  6. FXThe Binance BreachBillions left Binance hot wallets, issuers froze about $1.8 billion of stablecoins and Bitcoin fell below $79,000. What is confirmed, what is only claimed, and what it means for a market in a bear phase. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.6 MB
  7. MacroMidterms 2026: What Markets Are PricingPrediction markets and models point to a change in control of at least one chamber on 3 November. What is priced, the Senate races that decide it, what history says and what each outcome means for policy. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.5 MB
  8. MacroThe US Consumer at the LimitSentiment near record lows, gasoline above $4 and real wages falling, yet retailers forecast a first trillion-dollar holiday season. What holds spending up, who carries it and where it could crack. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.5 MB
  9. CommoditiesEurope’s Winter Gas SqueezeTTF crossed €100/MWh for the first time since 2022 with storage at a record low for the season. Prices, storage, the contest with Asia for LNG, policy, exposed industries and the winter outlook. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.6 MB
  10. EquitiesBig Tech’s AI Bill Comes DueAlphabet, Microsoft and Meta all grew revenue by about a fifth or more in the September quarter, but the market only paid where operating cash covered the spending. The three quarters compared. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.4 MB
  11. RatesThe Warsh Fed: A Pause, Two Dissents and Fewer MeetingsThe Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October with two officials voting to hike, and plans fewer meetings. The decision, inflation and jobs, the bond market, the Warsh agenda and the path into December. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  12. CommoditiesOil Above $115: The Gulf Under FireClaimed attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure pushed Brent above $115 with damage still unconfirmed. Hormuz and the bypass routes, the supply balance, gas, inflation, winners and losers, and the scenarios. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.2 MB
  13. MacroThe United Kingdom: Inflation, Gilts and the BudgetSeptember inflation rose to 3.5%, borrowing ran above forecast and net debt passed £3 trillion in the week before the Budget. Inflation, jobs, the Bank of England, gilts, public finances and the scenarios. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.2 MB
  14. EquitiesTesla and SpaceX: Anatomy of a $3.4 Trillion MergerElon Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX boards have formed committees to study a combination. No terms exist yet. The two businesses, the valuation gap, the governance hurdles and the likely outcomes. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.2 MB
  15. RatesThe US Deficit: $2 Trillion and the Price of BorrowingInterest now costs more than defence and the 10-year yields above 5%. The deficit, the cost of interest, the debt, Treasury supply and demand, ratings and the policy options. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.2 MB
  16. CommoditiesRussia Sanctions: The Graham Act Waiver and Its Market ConsequencesPresident Trump waived the new sanctions and secondary tariffs two days before they took effect; existing sanctions remain. What was suspended, why oil and diesel drive the decision, and what it means for markets. · PDF · 9 pages · 0.2 MB
  17. EquitiesAnthropic: Growth, Capital and the Road to a Public ListingAnnualised revenue has risen from about $1bn to more than $65bn in nineteen months and the company is preparing to list. What the latest data show and what an IPO valuation would assume. · PDF · 15 pages · 19.0 MB
  18. EquitiesLockheed Martin: Backlog, Execution and the Arsenal TradeA record $230bn backlog and a world that is rearming, against costly programme losses and a share price a quarter below its March high. Results, segments, the defence budget and the valuation. · PDF · 16 pages · 19.8 MB
  19. CreditPrivate Credit Under Higher RatesA US$2 trillion market lending mostly at floating rates to mid-sized, highly leveraged companies, now facing a hiking Fed. Defaults, hidden stress, retail redemptions, contagion channels and the 2007 comparison. · PDF · 9 pages · 0.2 MB
  20. RatesThe US Housing Market at a 5% Ten-Year YieldThe 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 5.98% in February to 7.40%. Affordability, the lock-in effect, prices, builders, rents, mortgage credit against 2006, policy and the scenarios for 2027. · PDF · 10 pages · 0.2 MB
  21. EquitiesCapital Expenditure, Depreciation and the Quality of US EarningsAI chips are expensed over five or six years while the chipmaker books the profit at once. How much that timing gap and other AI-era accounting flatter S&P 500 earnings, and when the bill arrives. · PDF · 7 pages · 0.2 MB
  22. CreditFinancing the AI Build-Out in 2027: The $1.2 Trillion QuestionAI infrastructure spending passes $1 trillion next year, more than Big Tech’s own cash covers. Who funds the gap, through which markets, at what cost, and where the risk ends up. · PDF · 10 pages · 0.2 MB
  23. FXEUR/USD: An In-Depth AssessmentThe euro is at its lowest against the dollar since May 2025 after four weekly declines. The drivers, from monetary policy and energy to French fiscal stress, tested against the data. · PDF · 8 pages · 0.2 MB
  24. FXUSD/CNY: A Quantitative ReviewThe renminbi is at its strongest against the dollar since mid-2022, in a move tightly managed by the People’s Bank of China. How controlled the trend is and how the central bank is now slowing it. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  25. FXUSD/CAD: A Quantitative ReviewThe dollar is at a one-year high against the Canadian dollar in one of the calmest moves on record. Why oil has stopped helping the loonie, and what the numbers say before the Bank of Canada meets. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  26. FXAUD/USD: A Quantitative ReviewThe Australian dollar is still up for the year, helped by the most hawkish central bank in the G10, but it has lost almost 4% in a month. The trend break, record-low volatility and the role of risk appetite. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  27. FXUSD/CHF: A Quantitative ReviewThe dollar has gained more than 5% against the Swiss franc this year, making the franc one of the weakest major currencies. How stretched the move is and what could reverse it. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  28. FXGBP/USD: A Quantitative ReviewSterling has slipped to a three-month low while gilt yields hit their highest since 2007. How the pound trades, what drives it and what the numbers imply before the 28 October Budget. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  29. FXUSD/JPY: A Quantitative ReviewDollar-yen is back near 158, close to where Tokyo and Washington intervened in July. The trend, volatility, tail risk and drivers of the pair, and what the numbers say about the coming weeks. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  30. EquitiesOpenAI Revenue and the MarketA report that OpenAI’s annualised revenue is about $50 billion, not the $70 billion that circulated a week earlier, hit the stocks most tied to the company. What the reports say and what the gap means. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.2 MB
  31. EquitiesSemiconductors and RatesChip stocks have almost doubled this year even as bond yields rose a full percentage point. Earnings have outrun rates so far. The state of the market and what further rate increases could mean for it. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  32. EquitiesASMLEvery advanced chip is printed on an ASML machine. Sales guidance is up about 16% and next year’s EUV capacity is almost sold out, but China and the pace of AI spending make the shares volatile. · PDF · 4 pages · 0.1 MB
  33. EquitiesAMDData centre revenue doubled, rack-scale AI systems are shipping and three of the largest AI developers have signed up. The shares have roughly tripled and trade above the average target. · PDF · 4 pages · 0.1 MB
  34. EquitiesBroadcomThe designer of custom AI chips for the largest AI developers says its AI revenue will double next year and again the year after. The shares are still a quarter below their high on fears of competition. · PDF · 4 pages · 0.1 MB
  35. EquitiesTSMC: Semiconductor SeriesThe world’s chip factory is growing faster than at any time in the past decade, and September sales suggest third-quarter revenue will beat its own guidance. The results, the expansion, the valuation and the risks. · PDF · 4 pages · 0.2 MB
  36. EquitiesNvidia: Semiconductor SeriesRevenue doubled again and the next quarter is guided above $100 billion, yet the shares have risen far less than the chip sector this year. The market is asking how long this can last, not whether demand is real. · PDF · 4 pages · 0.2 MB
  37. RatesWall Street on RatesAfter the Fed’s first increase since 2023, the large US banks agree rates will stay high but disagree on how many more hikes are coming. A weak jobs report and yields above 5% make the next step harder to call. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  38. EquitiesJPMorgan Chase: Earnings PreviewThe largest US bank reports on 13 October after a record second quarter. Management has guided to strong trading and dealmaking again, but its own executives say the cycle feels almost too good. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  39. EquitiesAmazonAWS is growing at its fastest pace in four years and earns most of the profit, but AI data centre spending has turned free cash flow negative. Whether the bet pays back. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  40. EquitiesConstellation BrandsSecond-quarter results beat expectations, but the beat came from refilling distributor warehouses rather than from more people buying Modelo and Corona. What the numbers say about demand. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.2 MB
  41. RatesFOMC Minutes: September MeetingThe Fed raised rates unanimously in September, but the minutes show a committee that agreed on the move far more than on the reasons. Most officials expect one more increase by year end. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.1 MB
  42. EquitiesSpaceXThe largest IPO in history created a $2 trillion company that is three businesses in one: satellite internet, rocket launches and a loss-making AI compute venture. What investors own and what the price assumes. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.1 MB
  43. EquitiesMicronAn 87% gross margin, revenue up almost fivefold in a year and a $1.2 trillion valuation in the strongest memory upcycle on record. The fourth-quarter results and why seven times earnings may still be a cyclical bet. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.1 MB
  44. EquitiesAlphabetSearch still grows, Google Cloud is up 82% and the antitrust cases ended without a break-up. The price is $200 billion of capex a year and the first negative cash flow quarter in two decades. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.1 MB
  45. EquitiesCoca-ColaOne of its best years in a decade, under a new chief executive and with volumes growing again. The business model, the shift from price to volume, the $20 billion tax dispute and the valuation. · PDF · 5 pages · 0.1 MB
  46. EquitiesNovo NordiskEurope’s most valuable company invented the modern obesity market, then lost it. How Novo fell from leader to challenger, what the Wegovy pill changes, and whether nine times earnings is value or a trap. · PDF · 6 pages · 0.1 MB
  47. EquitiesOracleA software company turned debt-financed builder of AI data centres. The backlog is enormous and half of it is one customer, cash flow is negative and the rating is one notch above junk. Can the bet pay off? · PDF · 6 pages · 0.1 MB
  48. EquitiesNvidiaThe world’s most valuable company is still doubling its revenue. The business, the latest quarter, the financing that now surrounds its customers, and what a $5.6 trillion valuation actually assumes. · PDF · 7 pages · 0.1 MB
  49. EquitiesParamount and Warner Bros.: Transaction AnalysisThe $110 billion takeover that reshapes Hollywood closes on 6 October. How the deal was won, how it is financed, what the regulatory settlement costs, and whether the combined company can carry its debt. · PDF · 7 pages · 0.1 MB