Recession watch
The most watched US recession indicators, each with its latest reading, its history with recessions shaded and its source.
Latest readings
Each indicator against its own published definition, or the note that it has none. Changes are on the reading about a month before.
| Indicator | Latest | Signal | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-3M curve10-year less 3-month Treasury yield | 78 bp−31 bp since 30 Sep | Not invertedAt or above zero since 17 Oct 2025 | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Sahm ruleRise in unemployment over its 12-month low | 0.00 pp+0.07 since Aug 2026 | Below the 0.50 triggerLast at or above 0.50 in Sep 2024 | Sep 2026 |
| Initial claimsNew claims for unemployment benefits, weekly | 194k−5k since 26 Sep | No official threshold4-week average 197k | Week to 24 Oct 2026 |
| HY credit spreadHigh-yield bonds over Treasuries | 326 bp+18 bp since 29 Sep | No official thresholdPast year: 260 to 346 bp | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Chicago Fed NFCINational Financial Conditions Index | −0.49+0.03 since 25 Sep | Looser than averageAt or below zero since 8 May 2020 | Week to 23 Oct 2026 |
FRED. Each reading with its own date. No forecast of our own.
10Y-3M Treasury curve
The 10-year Treasury yield less the 3-month, in basis points. Below zero, the curve is inverted.
FRED (T10Y3M). As of 30 Oct 2026. From Jan 1982, where the series starts. Recessions: NBER via FRED (USREC).
Sahm rule
How far the 3-month average of the unemployment rate stands above its lowest of the past 12 months, in percentage points, as published at the time. The rule triggers at 0.50.
FRED (SAHMREALTIME), from the BLS unemployment rate. Latest month Sep 2026. From 1970. Recessions: NBER via FRED (USREC).
Initial jobless claims
First claims for unemployment benefits each week, seasonally adjusted, in thousands, with their 4-week average.
US Department of Labor via FRED (ICSA, IC4WSA). Latest week to 24 Oct 2026. From 1970. Recessions: NBER via FRED (USREC).
High-yield credit spread
The extra yield on US high-yield corporate bonds over Treasuries, option-adjusted, in basis points.
ICE BofA via FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2). As of 29 Oct 2026. From Oct 2023, where the series starts. Recessions: NBER via FRED (USREC).
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
A weekly index of US money, debt and equity markets and the banking system. Zero is the average since 1971; above zero, conditions are tighter than average.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED (NFCI). Latest week to 23 Oct 2026. From Jan 1971, where the series starts. Recessions: NBER via FRED (USREC).
How to read it
The curve is inverted when 3-month bills yield more than 10-year notes; it turned negative before most US recessions since the 1970s, with long and variable lags. The Sahm rule marks the start of a recession when the 3-month average of the unemployment rate rises 0.50 percentage point or more above its lowest 3-month average of the previous 12 months; this real-time version uses the unemployment rate as it was published at the time. Initial claims count the people filing a first claim for unemployment benefits each week; the 4-week average smooths the weekly noise. The high-yield spread is the extra yield investors ask to hold the bonds of lower-rated US companies rather than Treasuries. The Chicago Fed's index reads positive when financial conditions are tighter than average and negative when they are looser, by the Chicago Fed's own definition.
Shaded periods are recessions as the NBER dates them, from the month after a peak to the trough.
Limits
No indicator here is a forecast, and this page makes none: no probability, no call. Indicators like these have signalled recessions that did not come, and turned late on others. Claims and the high-yield spread have no official threshold. The NBER dates a recession only months after it starts, so the latest months are never shaded. Claims are revised; the page shows the figures as last published.
Sources and method
All series from FRED: T10Y3M (from the Federal Reserve's Treasury yields), SAHMREALTIME (from the BLS unemployment rate), ICSA and IC4WSA (US Department of Labor), BAMLH0A0HYM2 (ICE BofA US High Yield Index), NFCI (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) and USREC (NBER). Each chart starts in 1970, or where its series starts. Daily series older than two years are shown one point a week. Fetched each weekday; a series that does not answer keeps its last figures, with their date.
For information only. Not investment advice.