Andra Markets

Oil jumps, curve steepens, but gold and credit sell off with equities

Every major risk asset finished lower Tuesday except energy and the classic defensives, while gold, long Treasuries, and high yield sold off alongside stocks instead of catching a bid. That combination points to an inflation repricing rather than a growth scare, and it changes what the next leg looks like.

Edition 00016 min read

Takeaways

  1. Havens did not work today: gold fell -1.22% and long Treasuries fell -0.79% at the same time as equities and credit sold off.
  2. WTI jumped +5.87% and pulled breakevens and real yields higher together, and the curve bear steepened with 2s10s widening to +41bp.
  3. Breadth was poor, with decliners outnumbering advancers 16 to 10 and a dispersion reading of 1.79.
  4. Digital assets traded as high-beta risk, with bitcoin down -1.67% and the rest of the majors down more.

The day's moves

VIX: +9.52%, close 16.34VIX+9.52%WTI crude: +5.87%, close 90.79WTI crude+5.87%EUR/USD: +0.25%, close 1.16EUR/USD+0.25%S&P 500: −0.71%, close 7,631.47S&P 500−0.71%Gold: −1.22%, close 4,377.20Gold−1.22%Russell 2000: −1.23%, close 2,920.13Russell 2000−1.23%Nasdaq 100: −1.29%, close 29,077.22Nasdaq 100−1.29%
Yahoo Finance, change at the close, 1 Sep 2026.

Desk view

The session confirms a shift in what kind of risk-off this is. A VIX spike of +9.52% alongside HYG, LQD, and EMB all selling off usually pulls money into gold and duration. It didn't happen. Gold fell -1.22%, TLT fell -0.79%, IEF fell -0.69%, and both moved in the same direction as equities and credit. High yield, investment grade, and 7-10 year Treasuries all printed session lows. At the same time WTI jumped +5.87%, the 5-year breakeven rose +6bp, the 10-year breakeven rose +4bp, and the 10-year TIPS real yield rose +2bp. Nominal and real yields rose together while the curve bear steepened, 2s10s to +41bp and 5s30s to +76bp. That is an inflation story, not a growth scare, and it explains why energy (+1.27%) and defensives (staples +0.32%, utilities +0.78%, health care +0.66%) held up while tech (-1.53%) and discretionary (-1.72%) did not.

The level that decides whether this extends is the 10-year at 4.75%, up +2bp today, and WTI holding above 90.79. If crude gives back today's move and breakevens fade, the inflation trade loses its grip and equities can stabilize even with credit still soft. If the long end keeps climbing and oil holds its gain, expect the bear steepener to keep pressuring duration-sensitive sectors while energy and staples keep outperforming. Watch whether gold and Treasuries resume their usual inverse relationship with equities. If they do, this reverts to a standard growth scare. If they keep selling with risk assets, the inflation repricing is the dominant force.

Biggest gainers and losers

AAPL: +2.61%AAPL+2.61%CVX: +2.38%CVX+2.38%XOM: +2.24%XOM+2.24%UNH: +1.77%UNH+1.77%META: +1.08%META+1.08%AMZN: −1.87%AMZN−1.87%GS: −2.28%GS−2.28%AMD: −2.36%AMD−2.36%TSLA: −3.22%TSLA−3.22%ORCL: −5.23%ORCL−5.23%
Andra Markets watchlist of US large caps; Yahoo Finance, change at the close, 1 Sep 2026.

What we watch

  1. Whether WTI holds above 90.79 or fades today's +5.87% jump.
  2. The 10-year yield reaction at 4.75% and whether the bear steepener extends toward 5s30s.
  3. Credit spreads in HYG, LQD, and EMB after all three printed session lows.
  4. Spillover from mainland China's -3.60% close into the US open.

Equities

The decline was broad. SPX fell -0.71%, Nasdaq 100 fell -1.29%, Dow fell -0.79%, RUT fell -1.23%, S&P MidCap 400 fell -1.05%, and NYSE Composite fell -0.46%. Decliners beat advancers 16 to 10, the ratio held at 0.62, and dispersion read 1.79, wide enough to say this was not a uniform tape.

The sector split was defensive versus cyclical. Staples rose +0.32%, utilities rose +0.78%, and health care rose +0.66%. Energy led at +1.27% on the oil move. Technology fell -1.53%, consumer discretionary fell -1.72%, industrials fell -1.37%, materials fell -1.18%, financials fell -0.88%, and communications fell -0.52%. Among single names, AAPL rose +2.61%, CVX rose +2.38%, XOM rose +2.24%, UNH rose +1.77%, and META rose +1.08%. On the other side, ORCL fell -5.23%, TSLA fell -3.22%, AMD fell -2.36% despite a YTD gain of +105.67%, GS fell -2.28%, and AMZN fell -1.87%.

S&P 500 sectors

Energy: +1.27%, close 64.77Energy+1.27%Utilities: +0.78%, close 42.56Utilities+0.78%Health care: +0.66%, close 171.67Health care+0.66%Cons. staples: +0.32%, close 85.25Cons. staples+0.32%Real estate: −0.16%, close 44.04Real estate−0.16%Communications: −0.52%, close 110.88Communications−0.52%Financials: −0.88%, close 57.20Financials−0.88%Materials: −1.18%, close 52.07Materials−1.18%Industrials: −1.37%, close 172.73Industrials−1.37%Technology: −1.53%, close 183.64Technology−1.53%Cons. discretionary: −1.72%, close 114.59Cons. discretionary−1.72%
Sector ETFs, Yahoo Finance, change at the close, 1 Sep 2026.

Rates

The curve bear steepened. 2s10s widened to +41bp (+2bp), 5s30s to +76bp (+2bp), and 3m10y to +84bp (+1bp). The 2-year held at 4.34%, the 5-year rose to 4.49% (+1bp), the 10-year rose to 4.75% (+2bp), and the 30-year rose to 5.25% (+3bp). The long end underperformed the front end across the session.

Breakevens moved with nominal yields rather than against them. The 5-year breakeven rose to 2.37% (+6bp), the 10-year breakeven rose to 2.35% (+4bp), and the 5y5y forward rose to 2.33% (+2bp). The 10-year TIPS real yield rose to 2.44% (+2bp). Real and nominal yields rising together points to an inflation-driven sell-off in duration, not a demand shock.

Treasury yield curve

3.96%4.54%5.13%3M1Y2Y5Y10Y30Y1 month: 3.85%, +1bp3 month: 3.91%, +1bp6 month: 3.99%, −3bp1 year: 4.16%, +1bp2 year: 4.34%, 0bp3 year: 4.40%, −1bp5 year: 4.49%, +1bp7 year: 4.62%, +3bp10 year: 4.75%, +2bp20 year: 5.24%, +3bp30 year: 5.25%, +3bp

31 Aug28 Aug

FRED, close of 31 Aug 2026, the latest published curve.

Credit

Credit was weak across the stack. LQD fell -0.93%, HYG fell -0.89%, JNK fell -0.89%, EMB fell -0.72%, and BKLN fell -0.10%. High yield, investment grade, and 7-10 year Treasuries all printed session lows. Primary markets were not flagged in the tape today, but the tone across cash bond proxies was one-directional and offered no place to hide.

Credit proxies

Loans (BKLN): −0.10%, close 20.55Loans (BKLN)−0.10%7-10Y UST (IEF): −0.69%, close 92.107-10Y UST (IEF)−0.69%EM USD (EMB): −0.72%, close 94.09EM USD (EMB)−0.72%Long UST (TLT): −0.79%, close 81.87Long UST (TLT)−0.79%US HY (HYG): −0.89%, close 79.10US HY (HYG)−0.89%US IG (LQD): −0.93%, close 105.22US IG (LQD)−0.93%
Listed ETFs as proxies for each segment; Yahoo Finance, change at the close, 1 Sep 2026.

FX

The dollar index rose +0.23% even as EUR/USD rose +0.25%, a split that says the DXY move came from elsewhere in the basket. USD/JPY fell -0.23% and USD/CHF fell -0.08%, both consistent with a firmer yen and franc. USD/CAD fell -0.35% and USD/MXN fell -0.19%, moves that line up with the oil rally more than with the broader risk-off tone. USD/TRY printed a fresh high at +0.04% on the day. USD/BRL fell -0.18% and USD/INR fell -0.28%.

Currencies

EUR/USD: +0.25%, close 1.16EUR/USD+0.25%Dollar index: +0.23%, close 99.65Dollar index+0.23%GBP/USD: +0.07%, close 1.35GBP/USD+0.07%USD/MXN: −0.19%, close 17.00USD/MXN−0.19%USD/JPY: −0.23%, close 159.75USD/JPY−0.23%
Yahoo Finance, change at the New York close. A rise in USD/xxx is a stronger dollar, 1 Sep 2026.

Commodities

Energy was the story. WTI rose +5.87% and Brent rose +5.26%, both closing at new highs on the session, with natural gas up +0.68%. Precious metals sold off with the rest of risk: gold fell -1.22%, silver fell -2.25%, platinum fell -2.20%, and palladium fell -3.26%. Copper fell -0.83% while aluminium rose +1.47%. Grains moved higher across the board, with corn up +5.92%, soybeans up +3.39%, and wheat up +3.24%, all printing highs, while coffee fell -10.34% and cocoa fell -2.12%.

Commodities

WTI crude: +5.87%, close 90.79WTI crude+5.87%Brent: +5.26%, close 95.25Brent+5.26%Natural gas: +0.68%, close 2.96Natural gas+0.68%Copper: −0.83%, close 6.54Copper−0.83%Gold: −1.22%, close 4,377.20Gold−1.22%Silver: −2.25%, close 64.73Silver−2.25%
Front-month futures, Yahoo Finance, change at the close, 1 Sep 2026.

Volatility

Spot VIX rose +9.52% to 16.34 while the shorter end of the curve moved the other way, VIX9D fell -14.96% and VIX3M fell -10.76%. VVIX rose +5.75% and SKEW fell -0.83%. In rates, MOVE rose +3.39% to 77.875, consistent with the yield move across the curve. The mismatch between spot VIX and the front of its own term structure is worth tracking into tomorrow's open.

Volatility indices

VIX: +9.52%, close 16.34VIX+9.52%VVIX: +5.75%, close 91.25VVIX+5.75%MOVE: +3.39%, close 77.88MOVE+3.39%VIX 3-month: −10.76%, close 18.33VIX 3-month−10.76%VIX 9-day: −14.96%, close 14.33VIX 9-day−14.96%
Yahoo Finance, change at the close, 1 Sep 2026.

Digital assets

Crypto traded as high-beta risk. Bitcoin fell -1.67%, ether fell -2.21%, solana fell -3.17%, and XRP fell -2.43%, all underperforming the equity indices on a percentage basis.

Digital assets

Bitcoin: −1.67%, close 77,239.81Bitcoin−1.67%Ether: −2.21%, close 2,412.28Ether−2.21%XRP: −2.42%, close 1.35XRP−2.42%Solana: −3.17%, close 99.73Solana−3.17%
Yahoo Finance, change to the New York close, 1 Sep 2026.

International

Europe closed mostly lower ahead of the US session: EURO STOXX 50 fell -1.01%, DAX fell -1.17%, CAC fell -0.79%, SMI fell -0.79%, and AEX fell -0.59%, while FTSE rose +0.30% and MIB was flat at -0.01%. Asia was mixed but the standout was mainland China's benchmark, down -3.60%, against a KOSPI gain of +0.46%, a Nikkei loss of -0.14%, and small moves in Hang Seng, Sensex, ASX, and TAIEX. The handoff to New York was soft outside of the UK and Korea.

Correlation

The break worth flagging is the one between equities and traditional havens. Gold, long Treasuries, and 7-10 year Treasuries all sold off with equities and credit rather than against them. That is not the standard risk-off pattern, where duration and gold absorb flows out of stocks. It lines up instead with the oil move and the rise in breakevens, which points to an inflation-driven repricing rather than a growth-driven one.

If that correlation breaks back to normal, meaning gold and Treasuries start rallying on further equity weakness, the market is telling you growth fear has taken over from inflation fear. If gold and duration keep selling with risk assets, the inflation repricing is still setting the tone and duration-sensitive equity sectors stay under pressure regardless of what the headline index does.

Sources

Levels at the official close from Yahoo Finance; the Treasury curve, breakevens and real yields from FRED. Every figure in this note was checked against the session's verified fact pack. The text was drafted with a language model from that fact pack; the methodology explains how.

For information only. Not investment advice.