FX Daily analysis
Won sells off hard as dollar firms broadly, Swiss franc bucks the trend
The dollar index added +0.12% on the day but is still down -0.438% on the week. USD/KRW was the standout, up +1.306% in a 2.01 standard deviation move, while the Swiss franc pushed the other way against a firmer greenback.
Takeaways
- USD/KRW moved 1.306% on the day, a 2.01 standard deviation event, the largest outlier in the pack.
- The dollar rose on the session but remains lower on the week and flat on the month, leaving the broader trend mixed.
- AUD/USD and NZD/USD fell together, both in the bottom two of the daily currency ranking versus the dollar.
- USD/CHF fell -0.564% even as the dollar index rose, the franc the only currency to gain on all three horizons in the pack.
The dollar
The dollar index closed at 101.872, up +0.12% on the day, against a -0.438% loss on the week and a smaller -0.292% drawdown on the month. The session gain claws back only a slice of the prior five days' loss. The index sits 0.67% below its one-month high of 102.55 and 0.26% above its one-month low of 101.61, above both its 50-day average of 101.58444 and its 200-day average of 100.16966. The daily z-score of 0.35 is an ordinary move for the index itself, even with sharp single-pair moves underneath it.
The US 2-year yield rose +3bp on the day to 4.59%, but is down -9bp on the week and -19bp on the month. The 10-year fell -3bp to 4.91%, also down -9bp on the week and -33bp on the month. The dollar index's 60-day correlation with the 2-year is 0.36, loose but positive, consistent with the index firming alongside the modest daily back-up in front-end yields even as both are lower over the month.
G10 majors
USD/CHF led the major pairs in its own volatility terms, falling -0.564% on the day with a z-score of -1.29, the sharpest reading of the four main movers. The pair is down -0.898% on the week and -0.965% on the month, sitting -0.04% above its one-month low of 0.81981 and above its 200-day average of 0.80645. The franc gained against the dollar on every horizon in the pack: +0.567% on the day, +0.906% on the week, +0.974% on the month.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD both sit among the main movers, falling in tandem. AUD/USD fell -0.842% on the day, a -1.65 z-score, extending a -0.709% weekly loss, though it remains up +0.256% on the month. NZD/USD fell -0.687% on the day and -1.788% on the week, z-score -1.26, and now sits at both its one-month and 52-week low of 0.55863.
EUR/USD rose +0.314% on the day to 1.11919, adding to a +0.162% weekly gain, though still down -0.556% on the month. USD/JPY rose +0.614% to 158.645, sitting at its one-month high, up +0.709% on the week and +0.578% on the month. GBP/USD rose +0.182% to 1.341, also at its one-month high, extending a month that has taken it up +1.262%. USD/CAD rose +0.263% to 1.4007, down -0.04% on the week and -1.732% on the month.
Emerging markets
USD/KRW was the largest single move anywhere in the pack, up +1.306% on the day with a z-score of 2.01, extending a +1.363% weekly rise while the monthly change is flat at +0.02%. The pair sits at its one-month high of 1342.82996, a sharp reversal within the range given it recently printed its one-month and 52-week low. USD/CNY was little changed, down -0.011% on the day and -0.145% on the week, sitting at both its one-month and 52-week low of 6.6603. USD/INR fell -0.184% on the day and -0.48% on the week, extending a -1.656% monthly decline.
In Latin America and EMEA, USD/BRL rose +0.979% on the day, a z-score of 1.02, and is up +2.154% on the week and +5.077% on the month, now at its one-month high of 5.4883. USD/MXN rose +0.086% on the day but is up +1.401% on the week and +3.574% on the month. USD/ZAR fell -0.557% on the day, trimming a -0.223% weekly decline. USD/TRY was close to flat on the day at +0.059%, but sits at both its one-month and 52-week high of 49.9952, up +1.709% on the month.
Rate differentials and central banks
The rate differential backdrop is wide and largely unchanged in direction. The ECB's deposit rate stands at 2.5% as of 2026-11-03, last moved up 25bp on 2026-09-16, putting EUR 150bp below the top of the Fed's 3.75-4.00% range. The BoJ's rate of 1.25%, as of 2026-10-27, sits 275bp below the Fed after its own 25bp hike on 2026-09-24, yet USD/JPY's 60-day correlation with the US 2-year is -0.11, so the pair's gain ran against the usual front-end relationship.
The RBA holds at 4.6% as of 2026-10-22, 60bp above the Fed after a 25bp hike on 2026-09-30, one of the few positive differentials in the pack, yet AUD/USD fell -0.842% with a 60-day UST2y correlation of just 0.05: the carry advantage did not show up in direction. The RBNZ sits at 2.75% as of 2026-10-23, 125bp below the Fed, and NZD/USD's correlation with the 2-year is -0.04, essentially none.
The SNB's rate is 0.0% as of 2026-10-27, 400bp below the Fed, the widest differential in the pack, yet USD/CHF fell on the day with a correlation to the 2-year of just -0.03. The BoK's rate is 3.0% as of 2026-10-08, 100bp below the Fed, and USD/KRW's correlation with the 2-year is -0.24, negative, meaning the pair's sharp rise came despite a yield relationship that would normally point the other way. The BCB's rate of 13.75% as of 2026-10-27 leaves BRL 975bp above the Fed on paper, yet USD/BRL still rose on the day with a 0.10 correlation to the 2-year, a weak link given the scale of the differential.
Levels that matter
- USD/KRW: closed 1342.82996, at its one-month high, 0.32% below the 50-day average of 1347.19019 and 1.57% above the 52-week low of 1321.76001.
- AUD/USD: closed 0.69696, 0.59% below the 50-day average of 0.70105 and 0.73% above the one-month low of 0.69185.
- USD/CHF: closed 0.82012, 0.83% below the 50-day average of 0.82692 and 0.04% above the one-month low of 0.81981.
- NZD/USD: closed 0.55863, at its one-month and 52-week low, 1.23% below the 50-day average of 0.5655.
- EUR/USD: closed 1.11919, 0.38% below the one-month high of 1.12347 and 0.56% above the 52-week low of 1.11297.
- USD/JPY: closed 158.645, at its one-month high, 0.29% below the 200-day average of 159.10803.
- GBP/USD: closed 1.341, at its one-month high, 0.02% below the 200-day average of 1.34127.
- USD/BRL: closed 5.4883, at its one-month high, 1.85% below the 52-week high of 5.59.
Every pair
| Pair | Last | Day | Week | Month | Year to date | Policy rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The dollar | ||||||
| Dollar indexindex | 101.87 | +0.12% | −0.44% | −0.29% | +3.51% | n/a |
| G10 majors | ||||||
| EUR/USDUSD per EUR | 1.1192 | +0.31% | +0.16% | −0.56% | −4.75% | 2.50%ECB, −150bp vs Fed |
| USD/JPYJPY per USD | 158.65 | +0.61% | +0.71% | +0.58% | +1.22% | 1.25%BoJ, −275bp vs Fed |
| GBP/USDUSD per GBP | 1.3410 | +0.18% | +0.49% | +1.26% | −0.47% | 3.75%BoE, −25bp vs Fed |
| USD/CHFCHF per USD | 0.8201 | −0.56% | −0.90% | −0.96% | +3.55% | 0.00%SNB, −400bp vs Fed |
| USD/CADCAD per USD | 1.4007 | +0.26% | −0.04% | −1.73% | +2.12% | 2.25%BoC, −175bp vs Fed |
| AUD/USDUSD per AUD | 0.6970 | −0.84% | −0.71% | +0.26% | +4.36% | 4.60%RBA, +60bp vs Fed |
| NZD/USDUSD per NZD | 0.5586 | −0.69% | −1.79% | −0.55% | −2.98% | 2.75%RBNZ, −125bp vs Fed |
| Emerging markets | ||||||
| USD/CNYCNY per USD | 6.6603 | −0.01% | −0.14% | −0.66% | −4.80% | 3.00%PBoC, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/MXNMXN per USD | 18.8100 | +0.09% | +1.40% | +3.57% | +4.59% | 6.50%Banxico, +250bp vs Fed |
| USD/BRLBRL per USD | 5.4883 | +0.98% | +2.15% | +5.08% | −0.52% | 13.75%BCB, +975bp vs Fed |
| USD/INRINR per USD | 94.730 | −0.18% | −0.48% | −1.66% | +5.30% | 5.50%RBI, +150bp vs Fed |
| USD/KRWKRW per USD | 1,342.83 | +1.31% | +1.36% | +0.02% | −6.98% | 3.00%BoK, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/ZARZAR per USD | 16.5947 | −0.56% | −0.22% | −0.35% | +0.26% | 7.25%SARB, +325bp vs Fed |
| USD/TRYTRY per USD | 49.9952 | +0.06% | +0.43% | +1.71% | +16.28% | 36.00%CBRT, +3,200bp vs Fed |
Moves as each pair is quoted: a rise in USD/JPY is a stronger dollar, a rise in EUR/USD a stronger euro. Policy rates as the analysis had them on file, against the top of the Fed's range.
Sources
Exchange rates and the dollar index at the session close from Yahoo Finance; the Fed and ECB rates and Treasury yields from FRED. Every figure in this analysis was checked against the session's verified fact pack. The text was drafted with a language model from that fact pack; the methodology explains how.
For information only. Not investment advice.