FX Daily analysis
Dollar index slides to one-month low as rand and sterling lead gainers
The dollar index gave back 0.37% to close at a one-month low, with the softening most visible against the rand and sterling. EUR/USD pushed to its own one-month high as the broad dollar retreat continued into a third week.
Takeaways
- The dollar index fell to 101.492, its lowest close in a month, down 0.37% on the day and 0.68% on the week.
- USD/ZAR moved 1.57 standard deviations on the day, the largest move for its own volatility among the pairs tracked, with the rand gaining 1.19% against the dollar.
- EUR/USD rose 0.40% to 1.12372, a one-month high, even as its correlation to the US 2-year stayed near zero at 0.01.
- The US 2-year yield rose 2bp on the day but is down 9bp on the week and 22bp on the month, a backdrop that sits alongside broad dollar softness rather than a clean explanation for it.
The dollar
The dollar index closed at 101.492, down 0.37% on the day, 0.68% on the week and 0.33% on the month. That puts it at its one-month low and just below the 50-day average at 101.62124, with the 200-day average sitting 1.29% further below at 100.18661. The z-score of -1.17 marks this as a larger-than-usual move for the index's own recent volatility.
The US 2-year yield ticked up 2bp to 4.61% on the day but has fallen 9bp over the week and 22bp over the month. The 10-year added 4bp on the day to 4.95%, down 4bp on the week and 33bp on the month. The front end's monthly decline lines up directionally with the dollar's monthly slide, though the index's correlation to the 2-year over 60 sessions is a modest 0.35, not a tight relationship.
G10 majors
EUR/USD led the main moves among G10 pairs, up 0.40% on the day to 1.12372, up 0.97% on the week and 0.18% on the month. The pair sits at a one-month high and 0.35% below its 50-day average of 1.1277, with a z-score of 1.21. Its correlation to the US 2-year is essentially flat at 0.01, so the move tracked the broader dollar retreat more than any shift in the rate differential, which stands at -150bp to the Fed's upper bound.
GBP/USD also ranked among the main moves, rising 0.50% on the day to 1.34765, a one-month high, and extending gains to 1.28% on the week and 1.95% on the month. That monthly advance is the largest among G10 currencies against the dollar in the pack. The pair sits 0.48% below its 200-day average at 1.34125. Correlation to the US 2-year is slightly negative at -0.06, so the move did not track the front end.
USD/JPY rose 0.29% to 158.37601, up 0.24% on the week and 0.26% on the month, a gain for the dollar against the yen that runs opposite the broader dollar index move. The pair sits within 0.09% of its one-month high of 158.52299 and 0.45% below its 50-day average. USD/CHF fell 0.23% on the day and 1.48% on the week, closing at 0.81651, its one-month low, with the franc up 1.79% against the dollar over the month, the strongest G10 monthly gain against the dollar apart from CAD and GBP. USD/CAD slipped 0.07% to 1.39726, near its one-month low, with CAD up 2.08% against the dollar on the month, the largest G10 monthly move in the pack. AUD/USD and NZD/USD were little changed on the day, up 0.10% each, with AUD down 0.34% on the week and NZD down 0.97% on the week.
Emerging markets
USD/ZAR carried the largest move for its own volatility in the entire pack, falling 1.18% on the day to 16.40551, a z-score of -1.57. The rand is up 1.42% against the dollar on the week and 1.43% on the month, putting the pair right at its 200-day average of 16.39112, within 0.09%. USD/TRY was little changed, up 0.09% on the day to 50.03325, sitting at its one-month high, with the lira down 1.79% against the dollar on the month.
In Asia, USD/CNY rose 0.25% on the day to 6.6643 even as the yuan posted a 1.82 z-score, the second-largest move for its own volatility in the pack; the pair remains down 0.60% on the month in dollar terms, with the yuan up 0.60% against the dollar over that span. USD/KRW fell 0.35% on the day to 1340.06, though the won is down 0.99% on the week. USD/INR slipped 0.10% to 94.63, with the rupee up 1.81% against the dollar on the month. In Latin America, USD/BRL rose 0.35% on the day to 5.4551, a one-month high, with the real down 8.40% against the dollar over the month, the largest monthly move against the dollar of any currency in the pack. USD/MXN rose 0.20% to 18.607, with the peso down 2.93% against the dollar on the month.
Rate differentials and central banks
The rand's move stands out against a policy backdrop of a 325bp premium to the Fed's upper bound, the widest among the main movers, following a 25bp SARB hike on 2026-09-25. USD/ZAR's correlation to the US 2-year is slightly negative at -0.04, so Wednesday's front-end move does not explain the rand's advance. The pair's shift looks more idiosyncratic given the size of its z-score relative to its correlation profile.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD both advanced against a dollar that softened broadly rather than against any single rate catalyst. The ECB's deposit rate stands at 2.50% as of 2026-11-04, a 150bp discount to the Fed, following a 25bp move on 2026-09-16. The BoE rate sits at 3.75% as of 2026-10-26, only 25bp below the Fed's upper bound, the narrowest differential among the majors in the pack, with the last BoE change a 25bp cut back on 2025-12-18. Neither pair's correlation to the US 2-year is above 0.01 in absolute terms beyond rounding, so neither move tracked the front end's small daily rise or its larger weekly and monthly declines.
USD/JPY's gain came despite the BoJ holding a policy rate of 1.25% as of 2026-10-27, a 275bp discount to the Fed, after a 25bp hike on 2026-09-24. The pair's correlation to the US 2-year is negative at -0.11, meaning the dollar's advance against the yen ran against the grain of the front end's yield decline over the week and month. USD/CNY's rise came with a PBoC rate of 3.00% as of 2026-10-19 and no decision recorded in the pack for comparison; its correlation to the 2-year is a modest 0.11, not enough to anchor the day's move to the US front end alone.
Levels that matter
- USD/CNY: closed 6.6643, between 6.6480 (52-week low) below and 6.69191 (50-day average) above.
- USD/ZAR: closed 16.40551, between 16.39112 (200-day average) below and 16.48582 (50-day average) above.
- GBP/USD: closed 1.34765 at its one-month high, with 1.34125 (200-day average) below and 1.38253 (52-week high) above.
- EUR/USD: closed 1.12372 at its one-month high, with 1.11297 (52-week low) below and 1.1277 (50-day average) above.
- USD/JPY: closed 158.37601, between 157.66518 (50-day average) below and 158.52299 (one-month high) above.
- USD/CHF: closed 0.81651 at its one-month low, with 0.80661 (200-day average) below and 0.82687 (50-day average) above.
- USD/CAD: closed 1.39726, between 1.39703 (one-month low) below and 1.41087 (50-day average) above.
- USD/BRL: closed 5.4551 at its one-month high, with 5.15231 (50-day average) below and 5.59 (52-week high) above.
Every pair
| Pair | Last | Day | Week | Month | Year to date | Policy rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The dollar | ||||||
| Dollar indexindex | 101.49 | −0.37% | −0.68% | −0.33% | +3.12% | n/a |
| G10 majors | ||||||
| EUR/USDUSD per EUR | 1.1237 | +0.40% | +0.97% | +0.18% | −4.37% | 2.50%ECB, −150bp vs Fed |
| USD/JPYJPY per USD | 158.38 | +0.29% | +0.24% | +0.26% | +1.05% | 1.25%BoJ, −275bp vs Fed |
| GBP/USDUSD per GBP | 1.3477 | +0.50% | +1.28% | +1.95% | +0.02% | 3.75%BoE, −25bp vs Fed |
| USD/CHFCHF per USD | 0.8165 | −0.23% | −1.48% | −1.76% | +3.09% | 0.00%SNB, −400bp vs Fed |
| USD/CADCAD per USD | 1.3973 | −0.07% | −0.55% | −2.04% | +1.87% | 2.25%BoC, −175bp vs Fed |
| AUD/USDUSD per AUD | 0.7007 | +0.10% | −0.34% | +0.57% | +4.92% | 4.60%RBA, +60bp vs Fed |
| NZD/USDUSD per NZD | 0.5625 | +0.10% | −0.97% | +0.47% | −2.31% | 2.75%RBNZ, −125bp vs Fed |
| Emerging markets | ||||||
| USD/CNYCNY per USD | 6.6643 | +0.24% | −0.06% | −0.60% | −4.74% | 3.00%PBoC, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/MXNMXN per USD | 18.6070 | +0.20% | −0.43% | +3.02% | +3.46% | 6.50%Banxico, +250bp vs Fed |
| USD/BRLBRL per USD | 5.4551 | +0.35% | +1.96% | +9.17% | −1.12% | 13.75%BCB, +975bp vs Fed |
| USD/INRINR per USD | 94.630 | −0.10% | −0.58% | −1.78% | +5.19% | 5.50%RBI, +150bp vs Fed |
| USD/KRWKRW per USD | 1,340.06 | −0.35% | +1.00% | −0.28% | −7.17% | 3.00%BoK, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/ZARZAR per USD | 16.4055 | −1.18% | −1.40% | −1.41% | −0.88% | 7.25%SARB, +325bp vs Fed |
| USD/TRYTRY per USD | 50.0333 | +0.09% | +0.47% | +1.82% | +16.37% | 36.00%CBRT, +3,200bp vs Fed |
Moves as each pair is quoted: a rise in USD/JPY is a stronger dollar, a rise in EUR/USD a stronger euro. Policy rates as the analysis had them on file, against the top of the Fed's range.
Sources
Exchange rates and the dollar index at the session close from Yahoo Finance; the Fed and ECB rates and Treasury yields from FRED. Every figure in this analysis was checked against the session's verified fact pack. The text was drafted with a language model from that fact pack; the methodology explains how.
For information only. Not investment advice.