FX Daily analysis
Dollar firms a touch as won slides, franc and rand lead against it
The dollar index edged up 0.08% on the day but sits lower on the week and the month, a split session with no single direction. USD/KRW did the standout move, up 1.03% as the won lagged every other currency in the pack.
Takeaways
- USD/KRW rose 1.03% on the day, the largest move for its own volatility in the pack, at a z-score of 1.58.
- The US 2-year yield fell 3bp and the 10-year fell 5bp, both extending declines of 9bp and 15bp on the week.
- The franc and rand led gainers against the dollar on the day, up 0.41% and 1.05% respectively, while the won and Aussie dollar lost the most.
- The dollar index sits 0.06% below its 50-day average and just 0.08% above its one-month low, a tight range after a soft month.
The dollar
The dollar index closed at 101.591, up 0.08% on the day. That gain sits inside a weaker five-session trend, down 0.44%, and a weaker month, down 0.635%. The index is 0.06% below its 50-day average of 101.647 and 0.08% above its one-month low of 101.51. The one-year z-score of 0.23 says the day's move was unremarkable against the past year's range.
The US front end gave the dollar little support. The 2-year yield fell 3bp to 4.58%, extending a 9bp drop on the week and a 26bp drop on the month. The 10-year fell 5bp to 4.90%, down 15bp on the week and 41bp on the month. The dollar index's 60-day correlation with the 2-year's daily change is 0.37, a loose positive link. On a day the 2-year fell and the dollar rose, the pair did not move together.
G10 majors
USD/JPY fell 0.508% to 157.664, the largest daily move among the G10 pairs in the pack. In currency terms the yen gained 0.511% on the day, 0.107% on the week and 0.401% on the month. The pair closed 0.03% above its 50-day average of 157.715 and 0.74% above its one-month low. The z-score of -1.08 marks one of the more stretched daily moves for USD/JPY in the past year.
AUD/USD fell 0.523% to 0.69319, also among the session's largest moves for its own volatility, with a z-score of -1.04. The Aussie is down 1.786% on the week and 0.714% on the month against the dollar. USD/CHF fell 0.409% to 0.816, a fresh one-month low, with the franc up 1.464% on the week and 1.983% on the month, the strongest G10 currency over both horizons.
EUR/USD rose 0.121% to 1.12208, up 0.583% on the week but still down 0.291% on the month. GBP/USD rose 0.116% to 1.34497, a fresh one-month high, up 0.913% on the week and 1.379% on the month, the strongest G10 monthly performer after the franc. USD/CAD rose 0.065% to 1.4014, little changed on the week, though the Canadian dollar remains down 1.414% on the month. NZD/USD rose 0.057% to 0.55963, sitting 0.06% above its one-month low.
Emerging markets
USD/KRW was the session's largest mover in the full pack, up 1.026% to 1356.68, a fresh one-month high. The won is down 1.016% against the dollar on the day, 1.204% on the week and 1.249% on the month, the weakest currency in the pack over all three horizons. USD/CNY fell 0.177% to 6.6583, the yuan up 0.177% on the day and 0.694% on the month. USD/INR fell 0.299% to 94.465, the rupee up 0.3% on the day and 2.017% on the month, the strongest EM currency over the month in the pack.
USD/ZAR fell 1.038% to 16.4213, the rand up 1.049% on the day, the largest daily EM gainer in currency terms. USD/MXN fell 0.476% to 18.728, though the peso remains down 4.052% on the month, among the weakest in the pack over that horizon. USD/BRL rose 0.304% to 5.5037, a fresh one-month high, the real down 2.867% on the week and 9.49% on the month, the sharpest monthly decline in the set. USD/TRY rose 0.139% to 50.0799, also a one-month and 52-week high, the lira down 1.766% on the month.
Rate differentials and central banks
The central bank backdrop shows a wide and mostly stable set of differentials to the Fed's 4.00% top of range. The ECB's deposit rate stands at 2.50%, 150bp below the Fed, unchanged since its last move on 2026-09-16. EUR/USD rose despite that gap, and its 60-day correlation with the 2-year is 0.00, so the day's gain did not track the US front end. The BoJ's rate is 1.25% as of 2026-11-03, 275bp below the Fed, last moved with a 25bp hike on 2026-09-24. USD/JPY's correlation with the 2-year is -0.12, and the pair fell as the 2-year fell, consistent with that sign though the fit is loose.
The RBA's rate is 4.60% as of 2026-10-29, 60bp above the Fed after a 25bp hike on 2026-09-30, one of the few G10 banks with a positive differential to the Fed. AUD/USD still fell on the day, and its correlation with the 2-year is a weak 0.06, so the move does not line up with the rate gap or the US front end. The SNB's rate remains at 0.00% as of 2026-11-03, a 400bp differential to the Fed, among the widest in the set, and USD/CHF fell to a one-month low as the franc extended its run as the strongest G10 currency on the week and month.
Among EM banks, Banxico's rate sits at 6.50% as of 2026-11-03, 250bp above the Fed, last cut 25bp on 2026-05-08. The BCB's rate is 13.75% as of 2026-11-03, 975bp above the Fed after a 25bp cut on 2026-09-17, yet USD/BRL rose to a one-month high and the real posted the pack's largest monthly decline, a case where the wide carry differential did not stop the currency's slide. The BoK's rate is 3.00% as of 2026-10-08, 100bp below the Fed, and USD/KRW's correlation with the 2-year is -0.21, which does not explain a won move of this size against a 2-year yield that fell.
Levels that matter
- USD/KRW: closed 1356.68, at its one-month high, 5.81% below its 200-day average of 1435.4447.
- USD/ZAR: closed 16.4213, 0.43% below its 50-day average of 16.49266 and 0.18% above its 200-day average of 16.39217.
- USD/JPY: closed 157.664, 0.03% below its 50-day average of 157.715 and 0.74% above its one-month low of 156.494.
- AUD/USD: closed 0.69319, 1.04% below its 50-day average of 0.70038 and 0.19% above its one-month low of 0.69185.
- EUR/USD: closed 1.12208, 0.12% below its one-month high of 1.12347.
- GBP/USD: closed 1.34497, at its one-month high, 2.79% below its 52-week high of 1.38253.
- USD/CHF: closed 0.816, at its one-month low, 1.33% below its 50-day average of 0.82687.
- USD/BRL: closed 5.5037, at its one-month high, 1.57% below its 52-week high of 5.59.
Every pair
| Pair | Last | Day | Week | Month | Year to date | Policy rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The dollar | ||||||
| Dollar indexindex | 101.59 | +0.08% | −0.44% | −0.64% | +3.22% | n/a |
| G10 majors | ||||||
| EUR/USDUSD per EUR | 1.1221 | +0.12% | +0.58% | −0.29% | −4.51% | 2.50%ECB, −150bp vs Fed |
| USD/JPYJPY per USD | 157.66 | −0.51% | −0.11% | −0.40% | +0.59% | 1.25%BoJ, −275bp vs Fed |
| GBP/USDUSD per GBP | 1.3450 | +0.12% | +0.91% | +1.38% | −0.18% | 3.75%BoE, −25bp vs Fed |
| USD/CHFCHF per USD | 0.8160 | −0.41% | −1.44% | −1.94% | +3.03% | 0.00%SNB, −400bp vs Fed |
| USD/CADCAD per USD | 1.4014 | +0.07% | +0.19% | −1.40% | +2.17% | 2.50%BoC, −150bp vs Fed |
| AUD/USDUSD per AUD | 0.6932 | −0.52% | −1.79% | −0.71% | +3.80% | 4.60%RBA, +60bp vs Fed |
| NZD/USDUSD per NZD | 0.5596 | +0.06% | −0.58% | −0.49% | −2.81% | 2.75%RBNZ, −125bp vs Fed |
| Emerging markets | ||||||
| USD/CNYCNY per USD | 6.6583 | −0.18% | −0.12% | −0.69% | −4.83% | 3.00%PBoC, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/MXNMXN per USD | 18.7280 | −0.48% | +0.52% | +4.22% | +4.13% | 6.50%Banxico, +250bp vs Fed |
| USD/BRLBRL per USD | 5.5037 | +0.30% | +2.95% | +10.48% | −0.24% | 13.75%BCB, +975bp vs Fed |
| USD/INRINR per USD | 94.465 | −0.30% | −0.78% | −1.98% | +5.01% | 5.50%RBI, +150bp vs Fed |
| USD/KRWKRW per USD | 1,356.68 | +1.03% | +1.22% | +1.26% | −6.02% | 3.00%BoK, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/ZARZAR per USD | 16.4213 | −1.04% | −1.13% | −0.64% | −0.79% | 7.25%SARB, +325bp vs Fed |
| USD/TRYTRY per USD | 50.0799 | +0.14% | +0.50% | +1.80% | +16.48% | 36.00%CBRT, +3,200bp vs Fed |
Moves as each pair is quoted: a rise in USD/JPY is a stronger dollar, a rise in EUR/USD a stronger euro. Policy rates as the analysis had them on file, against the top of the Fed's range.
Sources
Exchange rates and the dollar index at the session close from Yahoo Finance; the Fed and ECB rates and Treasury yields from FRED. Every figure in this analysis was checked against the session's verified fact pack. The text was drafted with a language model from that fact pack; the methodology explains how.
For information only. Not investment advice.