FX Daily analysis
Dollar index jumps 0.72% as AUD/CAD moves swamp a falling US 2-year
The dollar index rose 0.72% on the session even as the US 2-year yield fell 12bp. AUD/USD did the heavy lifting, down 1.94% on a z-score of -3.63, with USD/CAD close behind at a 3.94 standard deviation move.
Takeaways
- USD/CAD moved 3.94 standard deviations on the day, the largest outsized move in the set despite a softer US front end.
- AUD/USD fell 1.94% and sits at its 1-month low, extending a 2.26% weekly decline.
- The dollar index rose 0.72% on the day even as both the 2-year and 10-year UST yields fell, a divergence the 60-day correlation of 0.33 does not fully explain.
- USD/KRW rose 1.76% on a 2.66 z-score, pushing the pair to a 1-month high against a 100bp negative policy differential to the Fed.
The dollar
The dollar index closed at 102.279, up 0.72% on the day, +0.39% on the week and +0.14% on the month. The z-score of 2.18 marks this as one of the larger one-day moves of the past year. That is a wide gap given the US front end did not cooperate: the 2-year yield fell 12bp on the day, 15bp on the week and 33bp on the month, while the 10-year fell 6bp. The 60-day correlation between the index and the 2-year is only 0.33, and today's print ran against that relationship. The index sits 0.04% below its 1-month high and 0.58% above its 50-day average.
The pattern suggests the dollar's gain came from specific crosses rather than a broad repricing of US rate expectations. AUD/USD and USD/CAD, the largest standalone moves in the set, both carry correlations to the 2-year near zero, consistent with that read.
G10 majors
USD/CAD was the standout mover, up 1.12% on the day against a z-score of 3.94, the largest in the fact pack. The pair is up 1.01% on the week but still down 0.91% on the month, sitting 0.46% below its 1-month high and 0.11% below its 50-day average. The Bank of Canada's rate stands at 2.50%, last raised 25bp on 2026-10-29, a differential of -150bp to the top of the Fed's range.
AUD/USD fell 1.94% on the day, 2.26% on the week and 1.38% on the month, a daily z-score of -3.63. The pair sits at its 1-month low, 1.93% below its 50-day average and 6.10% above its 52-week low. The RBA's rate of 4.60%, last raised 25bp on 2026-09-30, leaves Australia 60bp above the top of the Fed range, a positive differential that did not stop the decline. NZD/USD fell 1.37% on the day and 1.50% on the week, also touching its 52-week low, with the RBNZ at 2.75% and a -125bp differential to the Fed.
EUR/USD fell 0.82% on the day, a z-score of -2.32, extending a 0.35% weekly and 0.52% monthly decline, and sits 0.12% above its 52-week low. The ECB's deposit rate is 2.50%, last raised 25bp on 2026-09-16, a -150bp differential to the Fed. GBP/USD fell 0.90% on the day with a z-score of -2.26 but remains up 1.07% on the month; the BoE rate of 3.75%, last cut 25bp on 2025-12-18, sits 25bp below the Fed's top. USD/CHF rose 0.43% on the day, though CHF is still up 1.58% on the month against the dollar. USD/JPY was little changed at +0.04%, with the BoJ rate at 1.25% as of 2026-11-03, a -275bp differential to the Fed.
Emerging markets
In Asia, USD/KRW rose 1.76% on the day, a z-score of 2.66, up 1.92% on the week and 1.84% on the month, putting the pair at its 1-month high and 1.26% below its 50-day average. The Bank of Korea's rate is 3.00%, last raised 25bp on 2026-08-27, a -100bp differential to the Fed. USD/INR fell 0.66% on the day, continuing a 1.32% weekly and 2.96% monthly decline, with the pair at its 1-month low; the RBI raised its rate 25bp on 2026-10-07 to 5.50%, a +150bp differential. USD/CNY fell 0.12% on the day and 0.59% on the month, with the PBoC rate at 3.00% and no recent decision recorded in the pack.
In Latin America and EMEA, USD/BRL rose 0.68% on the day and is up 9.50% on the month, at its 1-month high with a 6.00% gap below its 50-day average. The BCB's rate is 13.75%, last cut 25bp on 2026-09-17, still 975bp above the top of the Fed range. USD/MXN fell 0.06% on the day but is up 3.47% on the month, with Banxico at 6.50%, a +250bp differential. USD/ZAR rose 0.70% on the day with SARB at 7.25%, a +325bp differential, while USD/TRY rose 0.19% to a fresh 1-month and 52-week high, the CBRT rate at 36.00% after a 100bp cut on 2026-10-23, still 3200bp above the Fed.
Rate differentials and central banks
The US front end fell across the curve: the 2-year down 12bp on the day, 15bp on the week, 33bp on the month, and the 10-year down 6bp, 14bp and 43bp over the same windows. That is a softer rate backdrop, yet the dollar index still rose 0.72% on the day. The 60-day correlation between the index and the 2-year is 0.33, positive but loose, and today's move sat outside that pattern.
Individual pairs split on whether they tracked the US 2-year. USD/CAD, the day's largest mover by z-score, has a correlation to the 2-year of -0.00, essentially zero, so its gain cannot be read against the rate move. AUD/USD and NZD/USD carry correlations of -0.01 and -0.09, also too weak to explain their declines by US rates alone. USD/KRW's correlation is -0.18, meaning its typical pattern would have been to fall as the 2-year fell; instead it rose 1.76%, a move against that tendency.
Policy differentials show wide dispersion but little clean mapping to today's moves. Canada's -150bp gap to the Fed and Australia's +60bp gap sit on opposite sides, yet both currencies lost ground against the dollar. Brazil's rate of 13.75% leaves a +975bp differential, among the widest in the set, alongside a BRL that has fallen 8.67% against the dollar over the month. Turkey's CBRT cut 100bp on 2026-10-23 to 36.00%, still a 3200bp differential to the Fed, with TRY at a fresh 52-week low against the dollar.
Levels that matter
- USD/CAD: 1.4128, below the 1-month high of 1.41934 and just above the 50-day average of 1.41131.
- AUD/USD: 0.68681, at its 1-month low, below the 50-day average of 0.70009 and above the 52-week low of 0.64495.
- USD/KRW: 1363.65, at its 1-month high, above the 50-day average of 1346.4466 and below the 200-day average of 1434.85415.
- NZD/USD: 0.55475, at its 52-week low, below the 50-day average of 0.56459.
- EUR/USD: 1.11433, below the 1-month high of 1.12349 and just above the 52-week low of 1.11297.
- GBP/USD: 1.33558, below the 1-month high of 1.34771 and above the 50-day average of 1.3304.
- USD/CHF: 0.82001, above the 1-month low of 0.81648 and below the 50-day average of 0.82677.
- Dollar index: 102.279, below the 1-month high of 102.32 and above the 50-day average of 101.68758.
Every pair
| Pair | Last | Day | Week | Month | Year to date | Policy rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The dollar | ||||||
| Dollar indexindex | 102.28 | +0.72% | +0.39% | +0.14% | +3.92% | n/a |
| G10 majors | ||||||
| EUR/USDUSD per EUR | 1.1143 | −0.82% | −0.35% | −0.52% | −5.17% | 2.50%ECB, −150bp vs Fed |
| USD/JPYJPY per USD | 158.43 | +0.04% | +0.39% | +0.23% | +1.08% | 1.25%BoJ, −275bp vs Fed |
| GBP/USDUSD per GBP | 1.3356 | −0.90% | −0.17% | +1.07% | −0.88% | 3.75%BoE, −25bp vs Fed |
| USD/CHFCHF per USD | 0.8200 | +0.43% | −0.44% | −1.56% | +3.53% | 0.00%SNB, −400bp vs Fed |
| USD/CADCAD per USD | 1.4128 | +1.12% | +1.01% | −0.91% | +3.00% | 2.50%BoC, −150bp vs Fed |
| AUD/USDUSD per AUD | 0.6868 | −1.94% | −2.26% | −1.38% | +2.84% | 4.60%RBA, +60bp vs Fed |
| NZD/USDUSD per NZD | 0.5547 | −1.37% | −1.50% | −0.96% | −3.65% | 2.75%RBNZ, −125bp vs Fed |
| Emerging markets | ||||||
| USD/CNYCNY per USD | 6.6648 | −0.12% | +0.06% | −0.59% | −4.74% | 3.00%PBoC, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/MXNMXN per USD | 18.5975 | −0.06% | −1.35% | +3.46% | +3.41% | 6.50%Banxico, +250bp vs Fed |
| USD/BRLBRL per USD | 5.4959 | +0.68% | +2.06% | +9.50% | −0.38% | 13.75%BCB, +975bp vs Fed |
| USD/INRINR per USD | 93.895 | −0.66% | −1.32% | −2.96% | +4.37% | 5.50%RBI, +150bp vs Fed |
| USD/KRWKRW per USD | 1,363.65 | +1.76% | +1.92% | +1.83% | −5.54% | 3.00%BoK, −100bp vs Fed |
| USD/ZARZAR per USD | 16.5170 | +0.70% | −0.54% | −0.69% | −0.21% | 7.25%SARB, +325bp vs Fed |
| USD/TRYTRY per USD | 50.1343 | +0.19% | +0.38% | +1.87% | +16.61% | 36.00%CBRT, +3,200bp vs Fed |
Moves as each pair is quoted: a rise in USD/JPY is a stronger dollar, a rise in EUR/USD a stronger euro. Policy rates as the analysis had them on file, against the top of the Fed's range.
Sources
Exchange rates and the dollar index at the session close from Yahoo Finance; the Fed and ECB rates and Treasury yields from FRED. Every figure in this analysis was checked against the session's verified fact pack. The text was drafted with a language model from that fact pack; the methodology explains how.
For information only. Not investment advice.